🔗 Share this article

Only 48 hours prior to the NYC race for mayor, Michael Lange made a bold electoral prediction – going beyond the winner citywide, but precinct by precinct. Lange, an expert in elections who grew up in the city, devoted more than ten years in left-leaning activism and has become something of a local celebrity recently for his deep dives into municipal statistics and voter surveys.

He released his highly detailed prediction map – accurately predicting that the progressive candidate would win while missing Andrew Cuomo’s solid showing – on his newsletter, his platform. He possesses a talent for witty coinages. He pointed out, as an example, the divide between the progressive stronghold, running from one neighborhood to another area to a third locale, where he forecasted (accurately) that Mamdani would win by huge margins, and the conservative-leaning zone on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. In those areas, “the Free Press and financial newspapers outrank the mainstream paper” in readership and most voters leaned toward the independent, who ran as a moderate alternative.

Election Night Trends and Surprises

What was your election night?

It was necessary because they were adding approximately 200K ballots into the system frequently! I felt a little nervous at the beginning: The candidate was ahead the early vote by a dozen percentage points, but came large groups of ballots added after that and his lead dropped from 12 to 8%. It was concerning.

You know, there was a world in which election day turned out kind of poorly for him, where Cuomo was going to end up essentially increasing his support from the Democratic primary. But Mamdani added half a million supporters to his initial base, and this was critical why he succeeded. He went out and massively expanded his base from the first round.

Coalition Building

Where did Mamdani get additional support from?

He assembled the alliance that progressives long aimed for: it’s multiracial, youthful, tenants and it’s people facing cost pressures. He gained considerably with minority communities, everyday New Yorkers, relative to the earlier election. Plus he boosted his core of left-leaning activists, youthful radicals, and Muslims and south Asians. Victory required without expanding his appeal.

He created the alliance that the left always wanted to build: diverse, young, renters and people struggling with costs

Additionally, there were some Trump/Mamdani voters – is this significant?

It’s definitely a genuine phenomenon, limited to working-class Latinos, Asian communities and Islamic voters. Electors in ethnic enclaves that supported Trump previously backed the progressive this year. But it’s not that he was winning over white working-class voters and Maga voters.

Turnout and Impact

A major development of the election was the sky-high turnout. Who did that help?

Both sides. Participation was much greater than I had expected. I figured we might exceed two million, but it reached 2.3 million – which is a lot of darn voters. There was a substantial anti-Mamdani block, who were motivated, but his supporters was also motivated, and that sufficed to win.

You predicted he’d get over half the ballots. Is he likely for that?

Right now you would say he’s favored to get over 50%. He’s at just over 50% but remain around 200K ballots left to report at that time. Thus I don’t think it’s definitive, but I believe it’s likely, and I wish he achieves it because afterwards none can claim Sliwa was a disruptor.

GOP Decline

The GOP candidate, the Republican candidate, is the other big story. His vote completely collapsed.

He didn’t win any district in any borough. Not even one neighborhood in Staten Island, similar to an 88% Trump neighborhood. That truly surprised me. Cuomo kept Caucasian districts, very wealthy areas and very religiously Jewish areas, and plus gained all of these conservatives on the island who had a high participation. I think there was a lot of tactical voting by GOP voters. They were doing it before the former president tweeted his support for Cuomo, but it assisted. It might have changed the outcome if Mamdani’s coalition hadn’t grown.

The “Commie Corridor”

Regarding your often-discussed “commie corridor” – did backing for the candidate dominant in those areas of the boroughs?

In my view there was some weakening of the commie corridor in some areas like Astoria or Greenpoint that have older Caucasian residents. There, instance, the Greek landlords and residents supported Cuomo. Thus there existed a little resistance. But overall, mostly the commie corridor is another huge reason why Mamdani won – he was polling between high percentages in specific neighborhoods.

Jewish Voters

Prior to the election we reported on whether Mamdani was making inroads with the community. Is there any suggestion that he succeeded?

There are areas with a lot of secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – like Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he did well. However in the affluent districts such as the Manhattan area, his position on Israel definitely mattered there. Similarly in the more middle-class Jewish areas including Queens neighborhoods, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they favored Cuomo. And also, there are Jewish immigrants from the former Soviet Union in southern Brooklyn, they were strongly Cuomo. Therefore I don’t know if existed major surprises here, but he retained left-leaning areas and even parts of the another locale by big margins.

Long-Term Significance

Has Mamdani rewritten what New York means politically? Will the progressive base serve as a springboard for leftwing candidates?

Yes, it’s not accidental that some of the biggest political leaders from the left hail from a few areas in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I believe that there will be additional examples – candidates will come from these areas to be promoted to higher office.

However I think that every city in the US could develop similar progressive hubs. Cities are the epicenters of leftwing power in the nation – because they’re young, people rent and they are places where people are crushed by the disparities we face.