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Beijing has sent its coast guard through the maritime area of the Diaoyu islands and military drones near remote Japanese territory as China escalates strains over the Japanese prime minister’s comments regarding Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

On Sunday, the Chinese coast guard stated that its ships conducted a “rights enforcement patrol” through the waters of the Diaoyu islands, which are administered by Tokyo but also asserted as territory by China.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation conducted patrols within the maritime jurisdiction of the Diaoyu islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity conducted by the Chinese maritime authorities to protect its sovereign claims,” the statement said.

Diplomatic Spat

Beijing and Tokyo have consistently clashed around the islands but the latest activity come amid an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japan's leader, Sanae Takaichi, addressed lawmakers that if China attack democratically ruled Taiwan it might provoke a military response from Tokyo.

That provoked a furious reaction from Beijing, which has signalled it expects a withdrawal from Takaichi.

Taiwan's Position

China claims the island as its own territory and intends to annex it under what it terms “unification”. It has left open the military option. The island's administration and citizens categorically refuse the idea of Beijing's control – choosing to preserve the current situation without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if required.

An attack or invasion by China would threaten to spiral into a international confrontation, possibly drawing in the US and other partner nations including Japan, which has land just 110km (68 miles) from the island.

Military Activity

In Taiwan, the military authorities said on Sunday morning that it had observed three dozen PLA planes, seven navy ships and one “official” ship, which was probably the maritime patrol, active near the island over the past 24 hours.

Official charts released showed up to multiple UAVs flying between Taiwan and the Japanese islands off its north-east coast, seeming to travel unusually near to Yonaguni. PLA movements there are not rare, but infrequent, and Chinese military activity in the island's ADIZ generally has been minimal in the past month.

Earlier this weekend, the ministry said China had been carrying out another “combined military exercise” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It added Taiwan had dispatched military assets to monitor the situation. Taiwan documents these operations a couple of times a month as part of what Taipei says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Political Strain

Japan has been experiencing increased strain from Beijing since Takaichi made her remarks, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in Osaka prompting a formal protest from Tokyo by stating that “the dirty head that sticks itself out must be cut off”.

China then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first occasion since 2023, and China’s defence ministry stated that any Japanese intervention would be doomed to fail.

Travel and Education Advisory

On Friday, China cautioned its citizens against travelling to Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “appropriate measures”, though it provided no details.

Multiple carriers from China announced this weekend that tickets to Japan could be refunded or changed for free.

In another escalation, Beijing's administration on Sunday advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it described as an volatile safety situation.

Although not an outright prohibition, a dramatic reduction in the number of Chinese students could have a negative impact on academic institutions in Japan. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were studying in Japan last year, according to official data. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the largest demographic.

Official Commentary

Earlier this weekend, a Chinese state media editorial accused Takaichi of staging a political stunt that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a limited skirmish; it would probably involve other powers, including the United States, and could quickly spiral into a large-scale conflict with unimaginable consequences.”

Strategic Positions

The government of Taiwan says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Officials in Tokyo have previously avoided publicly mentioning Taiwan when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also preferred by Japan's primary defense partner, the United States.

However, China’s ruling Communist party says the incorporation of the island with the People’s Republic of China is “inevitable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, Beijing has also been escalating its non-military activity and its rhetoric towards the island.