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Well. From one perspective, the nation's long-running bid to host the Cop31 next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

The effort ran for more than three years for the privilege to host the largest global environmental conference and sustainable business expo, which would have attracted many thousands of people to the city of Adelaide next November.

This won't occur. Rather, the summit known as the UN climate meeting is headed to the tourist destination of the Turkish coastal city, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Letdown and Conflicting Signals

This outcome will be a significant disappointment to many people who had believed organizing the environmental gathering could help accelerate Australia's shift from being a carbon-based economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring global attention to the existential plight facing Pacific island nations, who would have been joint hosts.

The process that led to failure has been an unclear situation. Recently, there have been doubts that Anthony Albanese and other senior figures really wanted the bid to succeed. His statements sent mixed messages at best. This led to stories in the local and global press saying the administration was withdrawing.

This contrasted with the communication being relayed at the climate negotiations in the Brazilian city, where the Australian climate change minister, the climate minister, had just declared the country was "fully committed to success".

Uncertain support is a recurring problem for Australia's Cop31 bid. While Bowen championed it, other high-level figures of the government have only sometimes appeared to care.

DFAT, traditionally responsible for global environmental talks, has been uninvolved and sometimes outright opposed.

There is little sign the prime minister has considered UN climate conferences a priority. He hasn't attended one since becoming prime minister in 2022. We'll never know, but many may question if more could have been done to secure the hosting rights.

An Alternative View

That's one interpretation. However, another perspective to consider it.

Considering the climate discussions this week in Brazil – and from an international perspective – the announcement on this week may, ironically, have been the most favorable outcome possible.

Bowen set out on Wednesday an unprecedented deal that he was developing with his Turkish counterpart, the Turkish minister. Turkey would be the conference leader, organizer and primary coordinator, and the Australian delegation – the climate minister – would assume a role as "chief negotiator", wrangling almost all nations on the stuff that the nations actually turn up for – the discussions on how to together combat the climate crisis.

Additionally, there would be a increased emphasis on the Pacific, including a preliminary meeting on an Pacific island.

Grounds for Scepticism

Multiple reasons exist for doubt. Turkey and Australia do not have a strong partnership. Specific aspects of the deal had not been completed at the time of writing. The whole thing could collapse before it begins.

But it could also be a way to recover value from what appeared to be an impending disaster for the multilateral work on climate change.

Turkey is generally viewed in the global community as having been determined on creating disruption in the international climate negotiations. The system is designed to operate by consensus. Usually, that means if there are several nations in the race those with weaker backing either withdraw gracefully, or a deal is quietly done to persuade them to step aside.

The Turkish bid clearly had less support than Australia and Pacific islands to host Cop31. At least 24 of the 28 nations responsible for selecting next year's host had backed the Australian bid.

However, uniquely, Ankara declined to withdraw. The word "disruption" has been used frequently in the past week, and not just by Australians.

Geopolitical Context

Ankara's stubbornness can be interpreted as a manifestation of the fracturing geopolitical climate. Without US participation under the former president, there has been no major power with the influence to stare down the oil producers that offered the Turks with some cover.

The Turkish president is considered aligned with the Russian leader. Some countries feared a conference obstructed from the leadership if his government led the discussions. And the Germans did not want to have to host an unprepared climate conference at the UN environmental office in the German city, which is what would have occurred under international regulations if the deadlock wasn't resolved.

A Creative Solution

A resolution was necessary. The UN system is flawed and often disconcerting to observe, but global cooperation has empirically made a difference in the fight against climate change. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a creative idea that keeps that going when it is most crucial.

Despite reasonable concerns of the federal administration over its contradictory stance for increasing fossil fuel exports, climate activists who attend UN conferences see Bowen as a positive influence in the talks. He has been requested to co-chair negotiation streams at multiple summits he has attended.

This matters. While certain critics have downplayed the role of a "president of negotiations", experts from research centers and veteran observers at environmental negotiations assert it is crucial to their success.

"Every successful Cop has been shaped by a leader holding the pen who can listen, build consensus and deliver an significant result. We saw that in the German capital in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. The reverse happened in the Danish city in 2009," they note. "It's the most important role at the conference other than making sure that delegates are fed."

Remaining Concerns

There are plenty of unanswered questions. For example, civil society plays a vital role at environmental summits. What, if anything, can the Australian government do to stop a crackdown on NGO participation by the host government?

Possibly little. However, this doesn't prevent this deal looking like the most promising opportunity possible to have a conference that may offer something for the Pacific, Australia and the world. This attempt is justified.