A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
